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Supply of "Non-GMO" raw materials in the EU is secured
Bertalan Kruppa (Donau Soja Association) at the Non-GMO Summit 2024. Photo: Nina Werth
Supply of "Non-GMO" maize, rapeseed and soy is very good
Bertalan Kruppa from Donau Soja reported on the currently very good availability of the most important "Non-GMO“ raw materials, soy, maize and rapeseed from Europe. Growing acreage and good harvests characterise availability in the current 2024/25 season. However, this also has the effect of putting pressure on prices for "Non-GMO" raw materials. According to Kruppa, the trend is characterised by growing demand for deforestation-free and regional soy raw materials, falling prices for GMO-free soybeans, but rising prices for soybean meal. Brazil continues to play a key role in supplying the EU with "Non-GMO" soy. Collaboration must be further improved in order to secure future production in this important country of origin. Even though the growing and harvesting conditions were not ideal, Kruppa did not see any supply bottlenecks for corn/maize and rapeseed. For further details, this market analyst referred to the current joint market report from ENGA, ProTerra and Donau Soja.
Demand is stable, but currently not growing
Daniele Marcomin, consultant with the Italian Agribusiness di Covolato, outlined the development of demand in Europe and future trends, especially for "Non-GMO" soy. Germany is by far the largest buyer of GMO-free soy with around 850,000 tonnes in 2023, followed by Serbia with 444,000 tonnes and Italy with 350,000 tonnes, according to statistics from Donau Soja. However, all EU countries import several times the amount of GMO soy, so there is still plenty of room for the demand for "Non-GMO" soy to grow. Out of the 26.6 million tonnes of soybean meal consumed in the EU in 2023, barely ten percent came from "Non-GMO" production. Marcomin noted that soy is being replaced by deforestation-free, sustainable and regional protein crops and emphasised the dependence of price trends on the development of the world market price.
Do not underestimate the influence of global interdependencies
Maxime Montserret, representative of Bunge, one of the world's largest traders and crushers of grains and oilseeds, explained the global connections on the soy market and the influences on the production and availability of "Non-GMO" soy. He analysed production, demand and price trends in Asia (China, India), the Americas (South America, USA, Canada) and Africa (Nigeria). Montserret concludes that the demand for soy oil for fuels is driving up global soy production and, in turn, decreases soybean prices. Specifically, he noted declining production capacity of GMO-free soy in Brazil and suggested that production volumes in the US could increase from the current level of around 10 percent GMO-free soy in favour of strong demand from the food sector. If EU legislation on deforestation continues to be delayed, India and Nigeria would also continue to have opportunities as exporters to the EU.
European supply of Non-GMO crops: Presentation by Bertalan Kruppa, Donau Soja
Global Soy Outlook GMO/Non GMO: Presentation by Maxime Montserret, Bunge